Series of papers on “low-carbon transition characteristics and model research under the new normal of economy”

Author:Rui Wu

Organization:School of Business

The form of the achievement:Journal Paper

Introduction: The achievements were published in Applied Energy and Energy journals, supported by major and youth projects of the NSFC. One of the series uses the global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to quantitatively assess the potential impact of export structural adjustment on national economy and carbon emissions. The results show that without climate policy intervention, China's export structural adjustment will lead to GDP growth of 0.5-0.7% and consumption growth of 2.0-2.2% in 2030, but the export volume will decrease. At the same time, this study compares the differences of GDP and carbon efficiency of three export structure models under the scenario of national independent contribution (NDC). The second part of a series of studies reveals that China's industrial sector's carbon emission entering the platform period is the common result of the decline of energy intensity and the slowdown of economic growth, while the adjustment of industrial structure and the change of emission intensity (emission per unit energy consumption) have limited effects on emission reduction. In terms of sub sectors, steel and non-metal industries with high energy consumption have had the most emission reduction; in terms of sub regions, emission reduction mainly occurs in western and northeast provinces, rather than coastal-developed provinces.